Northern EU enlargement in sight? Seizing momentum in uncertain times
A geopolitical window of opportunity has opened up: the new strategic context created by Russia’s war and Trump’s return have prompted shifts in public opinion in Iceland, Norway and Greenland. Northern EU accession is becoming a political possibility that requires attention.
Bundling enlargement could help build momentum. A carefully sequenced enlargement round that includes both Nordic and southeastern and eastern candidates could reinvigorate a fatigued debate. In particular, pairing Ukraine’s accession with Norway’s could shift the narrative from burden to opportunity.
Fisheries remain a political fault line for the Nordics. This means the EU should make an offer too good to ignore. However, the EU needs to be careful to only incentivise, rather than push, EU accession. An EU signal towards Iceland, which intends to hold a referendum by 2027, could help sustain domestic momentum, while Denmark’s EU Council presidency could particularly elevate the issue.
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